Easy as 1, 2, 3

25 05 2012

 

Bringing D-Will to Dallas should clearly be the Mavs main priority going into this offseason. Well, that priority is in the hands of some Ping-Pong balls.

The NBA uses a lottery system to decide the top three draft picks. Landing the worst record in the NBA will not guarantee the No. 1 overall pick, but it gives the best chance in a game of chance.

 

How the lottery system works:

1. Fourteen Ping-Pong balls are labeled 1 through 14.

2. Each team will receive a certain number of 1,000 possible four-number combinations. (There are 1,001, so one is not provided to the teams.) The worst the record, the more combinations for a team. For example, the Charlotte Bobcats – the team with the worst 2011-2012 record – will be given 250 combinations and the Washington Wizards – the team with the second worst record – will be given 199 combinations and so on until all 14 teams have their appropriate digits.

3. After the balls tumble in the lottery machine for 20 seconds, four Ping-Pong balls come out in a timely manner. The team that received that four-number combination (the order does not matter) automatically takes the first pick.

4. The balls are then replaced, and the same process takes place to decide who will take the next two spots in the draft. If the one combination that is not assigned comes out (what are the odds? oh wait…), officials go through the process again.

5. After the top three picks, the rest of the teams take their placement based on their record. Therefore, the Bobcats can be no lower than fourth.

 

Right before the NBA trade deadline this year, the Portland Trail Blazers sent swingman Gerald Wallace to the New Jersey (soon-to-be-Brooklyn) Nets for some insignificant players and a significant 2012 draft pick protected through No. 3.

What this means is if the Nets land the No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 pick in the draft lottery Wednesday, May 30, that draft pick stays in Brooklyn. If they only fall down to No. 4, off it goes to Rip City.

The Nets finished with the sixth worst record in the league at 22-44. Receiving 63 combinations for this placement, the Nets have a 6.3 percent chance of getting the top pick, a 7.1 percent chance of getting the second pick and a 8.1 percent chance of getting the third pick.

 

So, how do all these numbers for the Nets relate to the Dallas Mavericks?

If these Nets do have luck on their side and get one of these top three picks, consequently keeping the pick, they just landed the key to bringing Dwight Howard to their franchise, and it will then happen.

Through recent transactions and statements made by management, it is blatantly obvious that the Nets main concern is to win right now (which looks to be a difficult task for their franchise of late) instead of building for the future. They have a star point guard in Deron Williams that does not waiver like D12; he knows what he wants in an organization. As an unrestricted free agent this summer, he will choose where he wants to go and not where others tell him to go – what a crazy thought…

If the Ping-Pong balls bounces in the Nets favor, they will use their pick to package a deal for Howard. There is absolutely no other scenario with a top three pick in Brooklyn.

With Howard in Brooklyn, a haven for any professional sports league franchise, there is no doubt that D-Will will choose to sign an extension with the Nets. Yes, Dallas is his hometown, and yes, owner Mark Cuban has always treated his players very well. But come on. Brooklyn? Dwight Howard? Jay-Z? Williams would go no where with Superman flying into town.

The Mavs have one mission this summer: bring Deron Williams home. Don’t be confused – it doesn’t matter what Cuban or Carlisle says to the media because they have to be politically correct about this issue. There are other free agents such as Roy Hibbert, Steve Nash and Eric Gordon that would be solid pieces for the franchise… but target A, B and C is Deron Williams, and everybody in the Mavericks front office knows this.

Not only would this move allow the Mavs to have a franchise point guard for years to come since D-Will said he plans to stay with his next team for the rest of his career, but it leaves the option of Dwight Howard somewhat open. Even though the idea of the “three Ds in Big D” that has swirled through Mavs fans minds seems more unlikely than the New York Knicks deciding to let Jeremy Lin go, Williams coming to Dallas is step one in that two step process, leaving the idea in General Manager and President Donnie Nelson’s dreams.

With a package sending Howard to Brooklyn for another package with a top three pick, the Mavs would have to go to their backup plan… which would be a very apparent backup plan.

Convincing Williams to wear the blue and white instead of the black and white is exceedingly better than any other conceivable Mavericks plan for a multitude of reasons. The main one though pertains to the fact that Cuban forced a “bridge year” on his franchise this last season in order to make a big splash in this summer’s free agent pool. What this means is that Cuban let four key components to a championship squad go (to the great dismay of the Mavs fandom) because of the thought of signing Deron Williams and Dwight Howard this summer. He gave up the legitimate chance to repeat as champions for a tasty future.

Since Howard signed an extension with the Magic for one more season, that leaves Cuban with one fish. The fish that swam through the Colony in Dallas 11 years ago.

So, this Dallas hope of D-Will coming back will stay alive or quickly die with the picking of four white Ping-Pong balls. This hope can all but be dashed as Brooklyn would get their pair of superstars that could match any other superstar duo in the league.

This hope no longer lies in the hands of Deron Williams.

This hope lies in the hands of the official who manages the lottery machine. Good luck, Mark.

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31 05 2012
Deron to Dallas: Step 1 Complete « jay's jems

[…] Brooklyn Nets needed nothing more than one of the top three picks of Wednesday’s NBA Draft Lottery. This was the only way they […]

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